Chess Olympiad 2024: Who Will Dominate the Open Section in Budapest?

 Despite this, the event is set to break participation records, as chess players from around the world converge on Budapest.

Among the favorites, the USA, India, and China stand out, boasting teams with average ratings above 2700. But the real question is: who will rise to claim the top spot?

USA: A Strong Contender Without Its Stars

The U.S. team brings an almost ideal lineup, featuring Fabiano Caruana, Wesley So, Leinier Dominguez, Levon Aronian, and reserve player Ray Robson. With an average rating of 2755, they are serious contenders. However, notable absences cast a shadow over their team. World number two Hikaru Nakamura (2802) and rising star Hans Niemann (2733) are both missing. Nakamura, who also skipped the 2022 Olympiad, would have been a natural pick for the first board.

The USA has a rich Olympiad history, having competed in 40 editions and taken home 20 medals (6 gold, 6 silver, 8 bronze). Their recent successes include gold in 2016 and silver in 2018, with Nakamura playing a key role in both. This year, their team remains formidable, but without their top two players, they may face tough competition.

India: Rising Powerhouse on the Hunt for Gold

India comes into this Olympiad with a young and dynamic team, full of promise and potential. Arjun Erigaisi (20), Gukesh D (18), Praggnanandhaa (19), Vidit Gujrathi (32), and Harikrishna (38) form a balanced squad of youth and experience. In the 2022 Olympiad, India’s youthful second team captured bronze, surpassing the main squad, which finished fourth. This year, three players from that medal-winning team are back, and with Anand stepping aside to let the next generation shine, India is stronger than ever.

Although India has yet to win an over-the-board Olympiad, their momentum has been building. After co-winning the 2020 Online Chess Olympiad and earning bronze in 2022, they are now serious contenders for gold.

China: Veterans Returning to the Fray

China, the third seed with an average rating of 2724, fields a seasoned team led by Wei Yi (2762). While current World Champion Ding Liren is part of the squad, Wei has taken over as the highest-rated player. The team also includes Yu Yangyi, Bu Xiangzhi, and Wang Yue, all in their 30s. This group, which led China to Olympiad gold in 2014 and 2018, returns after missing the 2022 event due to pandemic restrictions.

China’s men's team may no longer have the youthful energy of past years, but their experience could be key to their success. The challenge will be whether these veterans can hold their own against younger, rising teams from India and Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan: Defending Champions Eye Another Title

Uzbekistan shocked the chess world in 2022 by winning gold, and they are back with the same youthful lineup: Nodirbek Abdusattorov, Javokhir Sindarov, Nodirbek Yakubboev, Shamsiddin Vokhidov, and Jakhongir Vakhidov. At just 29, Vakhidov is the team’s veteran, while the rest of the squad averages only 22 years of age.

Guided by former World Champion Vladimir Kramnik as team captain, Uzbekistan’s mix of youth and tactical brilliance will make them a formidable opponent once again.

Norway: Can Magnus Carlsen Lead Norway to Glory?

Magnus Carlsen, the world’s top-rated player, leads the Norwegian team, which includes Christiansen, Tari, Amar, and Urkedal. Despite a relatively lower average rating of 2670, Carlsen’s presence alone makes Norway a serious threat. He has already won every major individual title, but an Olympiad team medal continues to elude him. Will this be the year Norway breaks through under his leadership?

The Underdogs and Rising Stars to Watch

Chess Olympiads are known for producing unexpected stars and results. Keep an eye on 13-year-old Turkish prodigy Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus, the world’s youngest grandmaster, and 7-year-old Javon D James from Grenada, the Olympiad’s youngest participant. Additionally, Ukraine’s legendary GMs Ruslan Ponomariov and Vasyl Ivanchuk will be vying for glory, while England’s GM Luke McShane, often called the world’s strongest amateur, returns for another shot at team success.

With many thrilling matchups potentially on the horizon – including Carlsen vs. Ding Liren, or Gukesh vs. Ding – the Budapest Chess Olympiad promises to be an unforgettable spectacle.

You can explore all the team lineups here: Chess-Results - 45th Chess Olympiad Budapest 2024.